Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/10 – Red Hot IPOs and Facebook Monetizes WhatsApp

Red Hot IPOs: DoorDash exploded 86% Wednesday to $189.51 in its market debut, only a day after pricing its IPO at $102, which was above its $90-$95 range. According to CNBC, “DoorDash is being valued at 17 times revenue, assuming you take the last quarter and extend it over a year. By the same metric, Uber is valued at less than 8 times revenue, and GrubHub agreed to be acquired earlier this year for under 4 times sales. Lyft, which has a very limited food delivery business, trades for about 7.5 times revenue on that basis.”

To say this premium is absurd is frankly common sense. The food delivery business is not profitable and unlikely to ever become profitable and everyone is a loser for participating – The restaurants who lose money to fees, the delivery drivers who make almost no money, and the consumer who is paying $20 for an $8 salad.

A bit more quietly, following DoorDash an AI company called C3.ai surged 120.2% in its IPO. The IPO market is incredibly frothy and none of these valuations are likely to hold far into the future and everyone knows it. That being said, investor exuberance can keep them this high for months, if not years. In other news, Airbnb IPOs today and we will release our valuation of the company after its first trading day.

Facebook WhatsApp Strategy: WhatsApp isn’t popular in the US, but it is popular everywhere else. We shared this chart last week and are re-sharing it here to show the extent of WhatsApp’s global reach.

Source: Statista

However, WhatsApp has yet to be really monetized the way other Facebook owned platforms have been through ads. Mark Zuckerberg now sees potential to monetize this massive WhatsApp user base by bringing on retailers to sell goods and services on the app or to even use the app to handle customer service requests per Bloomberg.

Bloomberg goes on, “For Facebook, a company that makes 99% of its revenue from advertising, WhatsApp presents a chance to diversify its business and protect itself from erosion in enthusiasm for its core social networking apps. Eventually, Facebook believes, it can control the entire exchange between a brand and its customer, starting with an ad on Facebook or Instagram and leading to an interaction or product sale on WhatsApp or Messenger.”

We particularly liked this quote in the article, “They say you need three things to survive: food, shelter, and clothes,” she says. “But in India you need four things: food, shelter, clothes, and WhatsApp.”

We look forward to Facebook’s continued transformation and how it intends to find additional sources of revenue such as this venture.

Tweets and Charts we like:

Agreed. We’ve always liked the idea of an index offering minus certain names or industries.

Staying true to today’s theme

Debt Raising Records

Business Insurance not helping

Sneak peak of what will happen in the US when we get past Covid

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/9 – $T Stock finally moves and $550 headphones

HBO Max and Peacock: AT&T CEO, John Stankey, speaking at an investment conference highlighted that HBO Max added about 4 million new users in less than 3 months, putting subscriber count at 12.6 million. Against all odds, AT&T’s stock made a jump Tuesday on the news. CNBC also released a good piece last Friday on AT&T and its strategy with HBO Max.

Source: Koyfin

Comcast also announced that it has 26 million subscribers, up from 22 million in October. However, Peacock is free and has ads. Comcast meanwhile was down 1% on Tuesday.

Per Bloomberg some industry context, “The two media conglomerates are playing catch-up in a streaming industry with more entrenched players, including Netflix, Disney and Amazon.com Inc. Netflix has 65 million subscribers in the U.S. alone, and many more overseas. And Disney has a trio of services — Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ — that it sells as a bundle.”

Apple Launches Headphones: Apple launched its first over-ear headphones, deciding to enter a competitive market dominated by Bose and Sony and to continue the company’s push into accessories. The new headphones go for a meager $550.

Per CNET, “The popularity of AirPods have helped turn them into one of the company’s biggest recent hits. AirPods represented 35% of all wireless earbud sales in the spring of this year, according to surveys by Counterpoint Research. Apple’s AirPods are also the most popular in the market, followed by earbuds from Xiaomi, Samsung and Jabra.

By charging $549 for its new AirPods Max headphones, Apple is betting that customers will be drawn in by the memory foam ear cups and fold-flat design to choose them over other popular devices including Bose’s noise-cancelling headphones, which start at $380 and fell to $300 on Black Friday.”

The good news is that these headphones are only half the price of a Peloton bike so they’re a steal!

Charts and Tweets we like:

Investment grade bonds now yielding less than inflation expectations. Thanks Jay Powell!

Americans are paying off their credit card debt

Dividend economies and markets

Equity melt-up

Still a lot of cash on the sidelines – chart courtesy of @jsblokland

Americans’ willingness to receive Covid vaccine is increasing

Recovery completed among different industries

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/8 – Target Date Funds and Uber Self-Driving

Target Date Funds: A staple of a majority of millennial 401(k)’s – Target Date Funds, have many performance drawbacks and don’t perform as well as holding the same as directly holding the basket of ETFs that compose the target date funds according to a new research paper.

The paper comes to the conclusion primarily because of two factors: cash drag and additional hidden fees due to the fund of funds structure of Target Date Funds. Additional hidden fees is obvious and can hinder performance and the paper makes the distinction between fees when it says, “Typically, underlying holdings’ fees make up 60-80% of total fees, with the remainder attributable to fund-of-funds fees” The paper estimates this ‘fee gap’ to contribute from 0.56% to 0.82% in under-performance per year when compared to holding the same ETFs in the Target Date Fund and being invested 100% of the time.

Fidelity Freedom 2030 Replicating Fund Performance – Vanguard ETF Replication. The figure shows the performance of one dollar invested in one of two portfolios: the Fidelity Freedom 2030 TDF (Target Date Fund) or the Fidelity Freedom 2030 RF formed from Vanguard ETFs. The sample performance covers April 2006 through December 2017. The RF (replicating fund) outperforms the TDF by 13.9% over the sample period and the correlation between the two funds’ performances is 0.993

Cash drag refers to the effect holding cash has on performance. Target Date Funds are not always 100% invested and this affects performance, with the paper estimating that cash drag exhibits a 0.37% a year in under-performance. These fees and under-performance add up, especially in the early years and the gap in performance can be very large once we look at the end result.

Apple Chips: Apple is planning to release a new series of Mac processors as early as 2021 that are aimed at outperforming Intel’s fastest chips. Intel stock slid on the news because all Intel knows how to do is lose stock value and fall further behind its competitors.

Source: Koyfin

According to Bloomberg, “Chip engineers at the Cupertino, California-based technology giant are working on several successors to the M1 custom chip, Apple’s first Mac main processor that debuted in November. If they live up to expectations, they will significantly outpace the performance of the latest machines running Intel chips.”

The words “Long” and “Intel” should only be said together if you put an “out of” in between the two.

Uber Gives Up Self-Driving Alone: According to The Verge, “Uber is selling its autonomous vehicle business to Aurora Innovations, a San Francisco-based startup founded by the former head engineer of Google’s self-driving car project, the two companies announced Monday.”

The deal marks the end of Uber’s goal to create a fleet of robot taxis on its own strictly in-house as it now looks to partnerships to make the vision closer to a reality. As part of the deal, Aurora’s self-driving cars will eventually operate on Uber’s platform. Aurora is acquiring 100% of Advanced Technology Group (ATG) in an all-stock transaction and Uber will invest $400 million in Aurora. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will also join the company’s board of directors.

Uber self-driving car after a crash

Sequoia Black Swan: At the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, Sequoia advised its companies to reign in spending and to prepare for a new economic reality.

Yet despite its accurate warning and defensive posturing, Sequoia has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic. Investors in at least two mature yet active Sequoia funds will see 11-fold returns on paper, after fees, according to performance data reviewed by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg continues, “When Sequoia investors made their prediction in early March, they didn’t fully account for the ways a world of isolation would benefit technology companies or the impact of government stimulus programs, said Roelof Botha, a partner at the firm.”

Pays to be right and lucky sometimes.

Student Loan forgiveness analysis: Goldman Sachs did a macro level analysis on different student loan forgiveness proposals and the results are worth discussing as we millennials are well-versed in student loan debt.

There are a variety of proposals on the topic, but a divided government seems most likely with the Georgia Senate runoffs in January, meaning any forgiveness will be limited by Senate Republicans. In general, higher income and more highly educated individuals hold a larger percentage of large student loan sizes. For this reason, only a targeted approach would be a more “progressive” policy and vast student loan forgiveness is a “regressive” policy, strictly speaking.

The GS analysis is interesting for two reasons – personal tax implications and economic implications. GS says, “Debt forgiveness is usually treated as taxable income to the borrower .. For example, forgiving $50k in student debt for a borrower with $100k in income (and a marginal tax rate of around 25%) would leave them with a tax bill of around $12.5k in a single year.” These are are the types of details aren’t discussed in the student loan debate. Although we would say it would be taken into account by the technocrats crafting policy.

Also, they indicate that the effects of student loan policy on real GDP is negligible. “Forgiving student loans up to $10k would boost the level of GDP by less than 0.1% starting in 2021, with the effect declining over our forecast horizon. Over 10 years, this policy would cumulatively add $0.43 in real GDP for each $1 of forgiven debt … Forgiving student loans up to $50k would generate a large tax bill in the year of loan cancellation that more than offsets the gain from payment reduction, resulting in a slight drag on real GDP in 2021. In the following years, real GDP levels would be raised by slightly less than 0.2%.

Charts and Tweets we like:

US-China trade imbalance

Top performing IPOs

Restaurant pain

Tesla not competitive in Europe?

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/7 – Markets Up on a bad Jobs Report

Jobs report bad – markets up?: The November jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 245,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate falling to 6.7% from 6.9%. Economists had expected a 432,000 jobs gain and an unemployment rate of 6.8%.

This shows that the economic recovery is slowing and hasn’t met expectations, yet the markets were up with the S&P, DJIA, and Nasdaq closing .88%, .83%, .70% up respectively. Why has this happened, where’s the disconnect between the markets and the economy?

The markets don’t discount the bad data, but the bad data isn’t relevant in the current context. We are being promised a stimulus bill and vaccines are being rolled out which will boost the recovery. As long as these two developments are underpinning the background, backward looking data is not as important nor relevant.

Holiday Spending: According to Morgan Stanley, a majority of Americans intend to spend roughly the same or more than they spent last year for this upcoming holiday season. The highest earners are likelier to spend more when compared to their lower earning counterparts, with 73% of those making $100k+ expecting to spend more or the same this year. This is another metric that shows it’s the lowest earners are suffering the most during the pandemic.

Consumer spending across categories: Goldman Sachs estimates that consumer activity is back to 97.6% of per-virus levels.

Looking at it more in detail- clubs, sports, and entertainment, hotels, and clothing are down the most when compared to their February levels. In contrast, housing, communication, and financials are near 100% of their pre-virus levels.

Tweets and Charts we like:

The negative link between US equities, especially stocks, and the 10-year rate on Treasuries. This intuitively makes sense between tech companies promise growth and those future cash flows are discounted back at a higher/lower rate according to the rates movements.

Fun chart indeed!

The trade-off in investing

True diversification courtesy of ValueStockGeek:

Bill Ackman on his greatest investing mistake:

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/4 – Theater Industry Shakedown

Theater Industry Shakedown: On Thursday, AT&T’s WarnerMedia announced its intent to release its entire slate of 2021 movies directly on HBO Max at the same time they hit theaters. AT&T, as is typical for the stock, barely moved on the news.

The real news is the impact on movie theater chains. $CNK was down 21.95% and $AMC was down 15.97% once the headline hit. Adam Aron, CEO and president of AMC Entertainment said in a statement, ““Clearly, Warner Media intends to sacrifice a considerable portion of the profitability of its movie studio division, and that of its production partners and filmmakers, to subsidize its HBO Max startup.”

Source: Koyfin

A Cinemark company rep said “At this time, Warner Bros. has not provided any details for the hybrid distribution model of their 2021 films.” Hard to believe this was such a shock to movie theater operators, but they insist it was. If theater companies are so unprepared for announcements like these, it leads to the question of what their future will look like.

Pfizer vaccine: According to the WSJ, “Pfizer Inc. expects to ship half of the Covid-19 vaccines it originally planned for this year because of supply-chain problems, but still expects to roll out more than a billion doses in 2021.”

A company spokeswoman said, “Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected.” Fine, fair enough, this vaccine has been created, approved, and now being mass produced on a light-speed timeline. However, this doesn’t inspire confidence that the vaccine distribution will be completely smooth.

A truck leaves the Pfizer vactory in Belgium.

Famous Short Sellers get it wrong too: Jim Chanos, short selling legend, has been short Tesla’s stock for five very long years. “It’s been painful, clearly,” Chanos said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview.

He continues to believe that Tesla’s valuation and business model are absurd, and he’s not wrong. But it’s not enough to be right, your calls have to make money too.

Source: Koyfin.com

Is Tesla an EV company, an autonomous-vehicle company, or a clean-energy play? “It’s whatever people want to believe Elon Musk is touting,” said Chanos, pointing out that Tesla’s five straight quarters of profit are due to sales of regulatory credits rather than cars.

House Approves restrictions on Chinese companies: Per Bloomberg, “The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation that could ultimately lead to Chinese companies — including behemoths like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc. — getting kicked off American exchanges if regulators aren’t allowed to review their financial audits.”

Few things are as bipartisan in 2020 as anything anti-China. The bill gives a phase-in period with penalties that only kick in after 3 straight years of non compliance, but the intent signals increased hawkishness.

Tweets and Charts we like:

One possible timeline courtesy of the New York Times:

Party like its 1999 in 2020?

US Household debt service as a % Disposable Income at the lowest level in decades – thanks Jay Powell!

Our senators clearly had us at the forefront of their minds

Raise your hand if you expected healthcare to be best performing sector since 1990?

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/3 – Stimulus still on? and Facebook antitrust

Facebook antitrust: A group of US states is investigating Facebook for possible antitrust violations and plans to file a lawsuit next week. More than 40 states are planning to sign on to the lawsuit. It’s not known what the lawsuit will include in the complaint but one common allegation made against Facebook is that it has strategically tried to buy smaller potential rivals, such as Instagram and WhatsApp. (Btw, US millennial readers, the entire world uses WhatsApp except for the US.)

Source: Statista

We take no view on the likelihood of real tangible penalties or actions, but seemingly long shot risks like these can materialize into an unmistakable risk in hindsight overnight.

Humanoid lizard robot Mark Zuckerberg preparing himself for human communication protocols. It was important to us that we include this picture.

Stimulus Still in Play: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer threw their support behind the $908bn bipartisan stimulus proposal on Wednesday. This $908bn number will be the starting point of a new round of discussions with a stimulus deal being in a six month standoff.

“In the spirit of compromise we believe the bipartisan framework introduced by senators yesterday should be used as the basis for immediate bipartisan, bicameral negotiations,” Schumer and Pelosi said in a statement, referring to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Also, there is progress on the Republican side toward a deal:

UPS not doing their S part: Per Bloomberg, “United Parcel Service Inc. is temporarily restricting some packages it takes from big retailers such as Nike Inc., Gap Inc. and L.L. Bean Inc. as online orders spur record deliveries ahead of the holidays.”

This holiday season will be a record breaker with more online shopping than ever due to the pandemic, but can you guys chill so I can get gifts for my nephews shipped in time. Thanks.

Can’t win ’em all: Per Bloomberg, “The raging global pandemic helped hedge fund manager Said Haidar make more than 25% during the market turmoil in March. Vaccines that could end the crisis have now erased those gains … His Haidar Jupiter macro hedge fund slumped 23.5% in November, its biggest monthly decline since starting more than two decades ago.”

There’s two parts to every trade and the exit is just as important as the entry.

Tweets and charts we like:

Adapting to sentiment indicators

High option volume still hitting records

Zerohedge is a permabear but this tweet is spot on from all research pieces I’ve seen so far

Some lessons from a value investor about what doesn’t work

Like a junkie, Salesforce just can’t get enough of those deals

Image

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/2 – Lackluster Cyber Monday

Cyber Monday: Per Barrons, “According to Adobe, Cyber Monday sales reached $10.84 billion, rising more than 15% year over year. That is at the low end of the 15% to 35% range the firm projected, but still makes it the largest online shopping day in U.S. history. Adobe now expects online sales to reach $184 billion for the holiday season as whole, down from a prior estimate of $189 billion.”

Is this a case of Cyber Monday not really being a cultural force anymore or is shopping traffic not hitting the expectations purely? Time will tell, but Amazon did capture nearly 20% of Black Friday-Cyber Monday long weekend spend according to Numerator data.

Also according to Sensormatic Solutions, 2020 Black Friday weekend store traffic was down 49% compared to 2019.

US Bankruptcy tracker: There was just one company with more than $50 mm in liabilities filing Chapter 11 in the week ended Nov 28. This makes November the lightest month of the year with only 11 filings. However there have been 228 bankruptcy filings year-to-date by companies with more than $50mm in liabilities, the highest since 2009 when it was 275.

Kelly Conlan, managing director at Duff & Phelps LLC said, “The next wave of filings will come from the companies which continue to be impacted by the pandemic, even after a vaccine is distributed.” Providers of travel products and services are most at risk as work-from-home measures become entrenched and their clients transition to video communication, according to Conlan. She goes on that retail, minus Amazon and Walmart, will also struggle after another disappointing shopping season.

Zoom zooms down: Zoom feel 15.06% after reporting blockbuster earnings yesterday. The market is beginning to question whether the momentum in results like these can be sustained once we go back to ~normal. Zoom has surged over 500% this year.

This is indicative of the theme we highlighted yesterday, did some companies have a brief moment in the sun because of Covid or was their growth and secular story genuinely accelerated. The market is beginning to distinguish between the two.

Source: Koyfin.com

Tweets and charts we like:

This is more about Greeks and dark pool trading, but take a dive if you’re interested!

Moderna’s vaccine is currently the most expensive

Bill Ackman on what makes a great investment

Online ad revenue index skyrocketing

Millions set to lose jobless aid as federal programs expire.

That’s your millennialmkts daily debrief. Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/1 – Red Hot IPOs, Concrete Cool Nikola

Frothy IPOs – Airbnb and DoorDash are both set to start their IPO roadshows this week. Their IPO valuations are exceeding previous estimates with Airbnb seeking a range of ~$30B-$33bn, up from the expected $30bn. DoorDash is upping its target to ~$25-$28bn, higher than its original $25bn target.

Time will tell whether these roadshows will be successful or whether there will be investor pushback on valuations. The IPO market has been red-hot this year, with more than $140bn raised in 383 IPOs on U.S. exchanges, exceeding the previous full-year record set during the dot-com boom in 1999, according to Dealogic data dating to 1995. Speaking of IPOs, we will publish our valuation of a different company seeking an IPO in December later today.

Source: https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPOs2019Statistics.pdf

Nikola – Per Bloomberg, “General Motors Co. scaled back a partnership
with clean-energy trucking startup Nikola Corp., scrapping a tentative deal to jointly build an electric pickup truck and replacing it with a non-binding agreement to supply hydrogen- fuel technology.”

The new deal terms don’t include GM taking an equity stake in Nikola and it drops the plans for GM to manufacture the Nikola pickup Badger truck. Nikola was down 26.92% on the news yesterday, but it maintains a $7.8bn valuation. Let us be clear, this company is worthless. They have no product, no technology, no real plans that pass the smell test. Their founder and ex-CEO resigned abruptly in September following a report by famous shorter Hindenburg Research and has yet to be found. Nikola’s (we assume now former) Director of Hydrogen Production/Infrastructure is the ex-CEO’s brother who’s experience in infrastructure amounts to paving driveways and pouring concrete in Hawaii. Do we need to go on?

You can read the whole Hindenburg report here.

Travis Milton applying epoxy flakes to staircase in Hawaii prior to joining Nikola and allegedly revolutionizing the hydrogen fuel industry.

Moderna vaccine: Moderna applied on Monday for Emergency authorization of its Covid-19 vaccine to the FDA. The company asked the FDA to examine its data showing the vaccine is 94.1% effective at preventing Covid-19 and 100% effective at preventing severe cases.

Just to give you an idea of the reception, Dr. Paul Offit, a member of the FDA’s vaccine advisory committee said, “This is striking … These are amazing data.” Not to be outdone, Moderna’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. Tal Zaks said, “”It was the first time I allowed myself to cry .. we have a full expectation to change the course of this pandemic.” Moderna rallied 20.24% on the news, which is strange because this was expected. Julianna Tatelbaum from CNBC says:

Also, Pfizer’s first ‘mass air shipment’ vaccine arrives in the US.

Tweets and Charts we like:

Crazy month

Image

Amazon hired an army the size of Napoleon’s when he invaded Russia

Buffet on short selling:

Image

For you traders out there …

The Clorox vs the Amazon and Zooms of the world ..

That’s your millennialmkts daily debrief. Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 11/30 – Q2 2021 Vaccination Rollout

Covid Task Force Promises Rapid Rollout: We, from a federal perspective, have promised and set everything up so we can quickly review those EUAs (Emergency Use Authorization) and hopefully start sending out vaccines within 24 to 48 hours,” US Surgeon General Jerome Adams said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Adams continued that he expects 40 million vaccine doses to be produced by the end of the year and for most Americans to have access to a vaccine by early in the second quarter of 2021. American hero, Anthony Fauci also indicated on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the government will “almost certainly” begin vaccinating portions of the first priority population by the end of December. Besides healthcare workers, 87 million essential workers are in meat/food processing, municipal waster/wastewater, public transit, police, firefighters, and tentatively teachers who will all be first priority. More here

Oil Market Disagreement: A panel of OPEC+ ministers couldn’t reach an agreement on whether to delay January’s oil-output increase, leaving the matter unresolved. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are a 23-nation network that pumps more than half the
world’s crude.

Per Bloomberg, “While Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak spoke in favor of postponing the supply hike that’s currently scheduled to happen in the new year, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan were opposed.” Very nice. Remember, it was an OPEC disagreement that led to the negative oil spot price back in April of this year.

WTI Price source: Oilprice.com

Ant Faces Slim Chances: Per Bloomberg, ” The chances that Jack Ma’s Ant Group Co. will be able to revive its massive stock listing next year are looking increasingly slim as China overhauls rules governing the fintech industry, according to regulatory officials familiar with the matter.”

Ant is still in the early stages of reviewing changes needed to appease Chinese regulators. This is of course a blow for Alibaba Group which owns a third of Ant. If you are interested in the inner workings of the Chinese business world and political world, we recommend this article which talks more about the behind the scenes on this IPO debacle. Article

The strange, cryptic Xinhua News Agency article on Ant Group's IPO - TLD by  MW | DO
“Ma” means horse, “Yun” means cloud. The Chinese government used this painting in an article to send a warning to jack Ma that he is nothing but a cloud.

Tweets and Charts we like:

Only the US is investable change my mind

Value vs Growth Rotation

What shines isn’t always gold …

Consensus is bullish, we talked about this last week

We like this take.

That’s your millennialmkts daily debrief. Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 11/27 – Thanksgiving Trading Volume

Trading Volume highest in years: Trading volume typically dips in the days before and during holidays, expect a light trading day volume-wise in US markets today, but not this year. Per Bloomberg, “Volume on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index averaged 1.07 billion shares per day through Wednesday — making it the biggest lead up to Thanksgiving since 2004 and almost double the volume of last year, when about 580 million of shares were traded, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

Nasdaq $QQQ volume vs avg at the time as a proxy

We think this massive shift in volume is primarily due to retail traders (like you) rather than any increased institutional activity, for now. Increased trading is good because it means more liquidity, therefore better price discovery.

AstraZeneca Vaccine Questions: The AstraZeneca vaccine is undergoing an additional global trial to clear up the uncertainty they caused with their results earlier this week. There are unanswered questions after the company acknowledged that a lower dosage, that was administered by mistake because of a manufacturing error, appeared more effective. The company and its partner, Oxford University, initially didn’t disclose the error and other details, leading the scientific community to have concerns about the vaccine.

AstraZeneca says its COVID-19 vaccine needs 'additional study' | United  Kingdom | Al Jazeera

“Now that we’ve found what looks like a better efficacy we have to validate this, so we need to do an additional study,” AstraZeneca CEO Soriot said in his first interview since the data release. The study will most likely be another “international study, but this one could be faster because we know the efficacy is high so we need a smaller number of patients.”

Meanwhile, the NYT reports that the US military’s role in vaccine distribution will be behind the scenes.

Money Markets Funds: JP Morgan predicts that the supply of investable assets will shrink by about $300bn, while the amount of cash chasing these assets has doubled to $3 trn. A key factor on the supply side is that the amount of Treasuries is predicted to shrink as the US government replaces shorter-term debt it borrowed to pay for the 2020 stimulus bills with longer-term debt. Meanwhile, the demand for these short-term securities is rising. On top of this, Central Banks plan to keep its policy rate close to zero at least through 2023. You will hear us predict this often, but rates will never rise again and are far likelier to go negative during the next episode of economic stress.

money market mutual funds Archives - Alt-M
Will money market investors face the grim scenario JPM outlines? The thesis makes sense to us

Tweets and charts we like:

We think it’s definitely possible!

Corporate profits rebounding underpinned the stock market recovery

Forward P/Es of major US indices courtesy of Jake

Bicycle index bubble. Bubble charts are so fun. Can’t wait to see today’s EV bubble on a chart 10 years from now

That’s your millennialmkts daily debrief. Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.