Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/11 – Green ETFs and IPOs continue hot

JPM Carbon Fund: Per Bloomberg, “J.P. Morgan Asset Management is throwing its hat into the rapidly expanding universe of green funds. The JPMorgan Carbon Transition U.S. Equity exchange-traded fund (JCTR) will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday. The firm’s first U.S. ETF focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards will be passively managed and track a gauge that screens the Russell 1000 Index for companies seeking to reduce their carbon footprint.”

So the ETF doesn’t consist of ESG heroes just yet, rather companies that are seeking to become better at following ESG protocols. U.S. ESG funds have had a record $27.9 billion worth of inflows in 2020, according to
Bloomberg Intelligence data. Those ETFs currently have about $61
billion in assets.

Here are the top 10 holdings of the ETF:

Here are the top holdings of the Russell 1000 which the ETF screens for reference.

The top 5 holdings are the same, but 6-10 we start to see some changes.

IPOs continue hot: According to Bloomberg, among 200 firms that went public this year, 80 have yet to earn money, but their stocks have surged an average of 27% on the first trading day.

“It feels like the markets are partying like 1999 all over again,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Financial Group. “Companies are using this opportunity because the market is so thirsty.”

Investing in the Renaissance IPO exchange-traded fund at the start of the year would have yielded 108%, more than seven times the returns of the S&P 500 Index during the same time.

Airbnb went public yesterday and subsequently popped 122.8%. You can see our valuation of the company here:

https://millennialmkts.com/2020/12/10/airbnb-valuation-growth-is-expensive-in-this-market/

What we’re reading and charts and tweets we like:

China’s Xi Ramps Up Control of Private Sector. ‘We Have No Choice but to Follow the Party.’ – WSJ

This could be big

Don’t bet against house mouse

Image
Source: @carlquintanilla

Updated IPO craze

The race to Herd immunity

Image
Source: @jsblokland

Top Nasdaq winners

Source: https://bespoke.substack.com/p/meet-the-nasdaq-100s-post-election?r=2c2xd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

Crazy IPO market driving crazy valuations

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Valuation

Airbnb Valuation – Growth is expensive in this market

Quick Summary:

  • AirBnb has more than 4 million hosts offering private rooms in their own homes to luxury experiences, from one night to several weeks or months. AirBnb has a presence in more than 220 countries and regions and has served over 825 million guest arrivals and has cumulatively earned $110bn in revenue.
  • AirBnb intends to disrupt the one-size-fits-all approach that was the standard for travel and leisure. The company believes that hosting is at the center of the AirBnb experience and this focus enables guests to access unique places and experiences that were previously inaccessible.
  • In 2019, the company generated Gross Booking Value (“GBV”) of $38bn, 29% growth y/y, and has generated $507mm in free cash flow since inception, signifying its clear potential to cash generation in the near future. GBV were down 39% y/y in the first 9 months of 2020 due to the Covid pandemic per the company S-1.
  • The company business model has shown resilience in the face of the pandemic with business beginning to pick up within two months of travel shutting down around the world per the company S-1. Domestic travel has been especially strong and has rebounded at a rapid pace with people choosing to travel closer to home.
  • The stock is priced incredibly high, and while we love the company and what it’s doing, the valuation is simply not enticing as an investor. The stock is trading near our absolute Bull Case scenario which we outline in our valuation.

Business Model:

The concept of AirBnb was born in 2007 when the two founders, Brian and Joe, noticed an international conference was coming to town and every hotel was sold out. The founders quickly created a website, AirBedandBreakfast.com, and were able to rent their apartment to the conference attendees.

Airbnb is the latest company to make use of the sharing economy, or the peer-to-peer economy. The business model is built on buyers and sellers sharing resources through collaborative consumption of goods, services, and of ownership. The Airbnb platform provides tools that make it easy to connect hosts who own houses and apartments with guests who seek to rent them for short-term stays. Airbnb’s revenues comes from fees collected on guest rental stays with fees being charged on both the host and the guest side per the company S-1. In 2016, Airbnb added another business line with experiences, but the business has been slow to gain any meaningful traction with only $10 million in sales in 2017.

This is a handy graphic summarizing the business model courtesy of Aswath Damodaran.

Source: Aswath Damodaran

And Airbnb provides an illustrative example of the business model at work with the fees they would collect in their S-1.

Source: Company S-1

Hosts:

As of September 30, 2020, AirBnb had 4 million hosts around the world, with 86% of hosts outside the United States, and 7.4 million available listings of homes and experiences, 5.6 million of which were active listings per the company S-1. Per the company, “We consider a listing of a home or an experience to be an active listing if it is viewable on Airbnb and has been previously booked at least once on Airbnb.”

Hosts generally fall into two categories – individual and professional. Individual hosts activate their listings directly on the Airbnb platform through the website or app. Professional hosts in contrast run their own property management or hospitality business and use programs to list their properties on the Airbnb platform. As of December 31, 2019, 90% of hosts were individual hosts and 72% of nights booked were with individual hosts per the company S-1. Individual hosts are the core component and key supply for Airbnb.

Airbnb provides a number of services to enable their 4 million hosts. Anyone can become a successful host on the Airbnb platform and Airbnb is able to provide a number of services per the S-1 including:

Source: Company S-1
  • Global demand: Anyone with an internet connection can book an Airbnb experience from anywhere in the world
  • Merchandising: Airbnb helps hosts create and activate their listings on the platform. By taking hosts step-by-step through the process, Airbnb is able to make posting effective and easy.
  • Pricing: Hosts can set their own prices, but Airbnb does provide smart pricing tools that suggest prices based on changes in demand for other similar listings based on factors like the season and expected demand.
  • Scheduling: Hosts can easily manage their calendars and accept and manage their listings and reservations on the platform through the website or app.
  • Payments: Airbnb facilitates all payments by collecting payments from guests and processing the payments to hosts. In 2019, Airbnb processed approximately $70bn of guest and host transactions.

Airbnb also provides services like community support, host protections, posted reviews and feedback, and a superhost program.

Key metrics and Covid resilience:

According to the company S-1 filing, the majority of guests who have ever made a booking on Airbnb were between the ages of 18-34. In 2019, 54 million active bookers worldwide booked 327 million nights and experiences on the platform.

Source: Company S-1

Nights and experiences booked are a key measure of the true scale of the Airbnb platform. Per the company S-1, “Nights and Experiences Booked on our platform in a period represents the sum of the total number of nights booked for stays and the total number of seats booked for experiences, net of cancellations and alterations that occurred in that period.”

In 2019, Airbnb had 326.9 mm Nights and Experiences booked, a 31% increase from the 250.3 mm in 2018, which grew 35% from 2017. Typically, the first, second, and third quarters of the year each have higher Nights and Experiences Booked compared to the fourth quarter, as guests travel during the peak travel season, which is in the third quarter for North America and EMEA according to the company S-1.

Covid has obviously had an effect on the hotel industry, and Airbnb is not immune with 2020 being a down year and Q2 being particularly severe across several key metrics. However, the business model has shown resilience and management attributes this to the renewed ability and willingness of guests to travel. I know personally I’m looking at Airbnb’s in warmer climates as I’m itching to get out of the cold and soon to be lock downed northeast US.

Source: Company S-1

For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2020, the company had 146.9 mm Nights and Experiences Booked, a decrease of 41% compared to the prior year period according to the company S-1. However, the decline was most severe in the second quarter and business has rebounded with Q3 being down only 28% y/y. The company credits this improvements primarily to stronger results in North America and Europe and in particular to resilience in domestic and short-distance travel.

Gross Bookings value ((GBV)) is defined in the S-1 as “the dollar value of bookings on our platform in a period and is inclusive of host earnings, service fees, cleaning fees, and taxes, net of cancellations and alterations that occurred during that period.” Growth in GBV reflects the company’s ability to attract and retain hosts and guests and reflects growth in Nights and Experiences booked. In 2019, GBV grew 29% y/y and 2018 grew 40% y/y.

Source: Company S-1

In 2020, there is a similar drop in GBV due to the Covid pandemic. For the first nine months ended Sept 30, 2020 GBV was $18bn, a 39% decrease from the prior year period according to the S-1. The decline was once again most severe in Q2 and Q3 rebounded, being down only 17% y/y.

In 2019, GBV and revenue by region were about equal between EMEA and for North America. However, as a result of the pandemic, GBV and revenue have reflected a shift toward NA where the recovery has been strongest. “For the first nine months of 2020, GBV was $9.7 billion, or 54% of the total, in North America compared to $5.6 billion, or 31%, in EMEA, $1.6 billion, or 9%, in Asia Pacific, and $1.1 billion, or 6%, in Latin America” – company S-1

Source: Company S-1

Historically, Airbnb has had a strong weight toward cross-border travel, with 49% of nights in 2019 compared to management’s estimate of 20% of total overnight paid trips for the travel industry as a whole according the company S-1. However, the pandemic has marked a shift to domestic travel in Airbnb’s traditional travel corridor mix. In September 2020, 77% of experiences booked were domestic compared to 52% in January. In fact, domestic bookings have grown at a rapid clip with 54% growth in June 2020 and 35% growth in September 2020.

Source: Company S-1

This shift has been especially pronounced in short-distance (within 50 miles of guest origin) travel and travel outside of Airbnb’s top 20 cities. From May through September 2020, short-distanced GBV actually grew year over year and travel between 50 miles and 500 miles returned to growth in June of this year. Airbnb’s top 20 cities typically make up high single to low double digits of total experiences booked, but travel outside of these cities has been resilient throughout Covid being down only 19% y/y in September 2020 according to the company S-1.

Source: Company S-1

Clearly, Airbnb is well-positioned because of its wide offering to cater shifting consumer travel habits and this has enabled the company to be more resilient in a downturn than travel competitors, in some metrics even being able to achieve grow. If we look at hotel and travel booking competitors, we see that Airbnb has weathered the pandemic much better than most peers when looking at 9 months ended Sept 30 2020 revenue. Airbnb revenue is down -31.9% so far in 2020 compared to the median hotel revenue being down -48.2% and travel bookings being down -53.3%. Airbnb has also bounced back faster than every competitor minus CHH in Q3 with revenues down -18.4% compared to the 50.9% median for hotels and -52.7% for travel bookings companies.

Source: Company 10-Qs and Airbnb S-1

TAM and growth strategy:

Management highlights massive market opportunities in its S-1 filing, “We have a substantial market opportunity in the growing travel market and experience economy. We estimate our serviceable addressable market (“SAM”) today to be $1.5 trillion, including $1.2 trillion for short-term stays and $239 billion for experiences. We estimate our total addressable market (“TAM”) to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion for short-term stays, $210 billion for long-term stays, and $1.4 trillion for experiences.

In general, these assumptions are based on the belief that new travel behaviors will expand the market opportunity over time as well as the need to justify a large market cap. Management uses their own internal estimates to come up with the $1.2trn for short-term stays and Euromonitor estimates of tourist spend on attractions and experiences to estimate the $239mm for Experiences.   To get the TAM short-term stays estimate, management assumes an increase in trips per capita based on The World Travel and Tourism Council estimated 3.5% CAGR. For long-term stays, the company uses 10% of the $1.6trn global residential rental market. And for experiences, they add $1.1trn of non-tourist recreational spend, again as estimated by Euromonitor.

Source: Company S-1

In its early stages when it was a startup pitching to VCs back in 2009.  Airbnb estimated the TAM to be 2 billion+ trips a year and its SAM to be 560mn trips a year.

Source: Airbnb 2009 Pitch to VCs

Another way to look at Airbnb’s TAM is to look at the hotel business globally. According to NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s Airbnb analysis. The industry generated over $600bn in revenues in 2019, but its growth has stalled and the industry remains concentrated among the top 5 hotel chains. The US is the leading geographical market, but Asia has been gaining ground.

Source: Aswath Damodaran

The truth is Airbnb’s TAM, and we agree with Damodaran’s analysis here, is probably somewhere in between these two numbers. Ignoring Airbnb’s experiences portion of the TAM calculation because that business line is nascent at best, we get an upper estimate of $2trn and a lower estimate of $600bn for Airbnb’s TAM.

Peers:

We identify comparable peers to get a sense of Airbnb’s valuation and how in-line it is with the industry, while also keeping in mind Airbnb is growing faster and attempting to disrupt the hotel and travel booking industries. Current Hotel comparable peers are trading at a median of 4.1x 2021 sales and 2.0x 2022 sales according to Bloomberg Analyst Consensus estimates, while Airbnb’s IPO price implies – 18.45x and 15.33x Sales based on our own estimates of 2021 and 2022 sales, respecivetly. The EBITDA comparison is tough to make with Airbnb because we estimate they will be EBITDA negative in 2021, and the EBITDA in 2022 and 2023 will be $130mm and $370mm leading to high multipliers. We can see that the median hotel company is trading at 22.3x 2021 estimated EBITDA and 13.9x 2022 estimated EBITDA according to Bloomberg consensus.

However, perhaps a more apt comparison is looking at online travel booking peers such as Expedia (EXPE) and Booking.com (BKNG). The EV / Sales and EV / EBITDA are slightly higher for this comparable group vs the pure hotels peers, primarily due to Booking.com. The median among this group trade at 4.5x 2021 sales and 3.4x 2022 sales according to Bloomberg consensus.

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates

Is the Airbnb premium justified? One can argue a more resilient business model, the promise of fast growth, and large market opportunities created by disruption and innovation may make the premium seem reasonable when we try to compare the company to peer groups. There truly is only one Airbnb and these peer groups aren’t entirely indicative of the future company profile of Airbnb.

Valuation:

Setting the stage for the valuation, we take a look at Airbnb’s Venture Capital pricing in the rounds leading up to the IPO. We can see that the company has raised $5.8bn in VC funding and it’s latest Series F round in 2016. In April 2020 the company was valued at $18bn.

The IPO has clearly priced in a lot of generous assumptions as well as simple speculation with a hot market. Initially, Airbnb planned to sell shares for a range of $44-$50 per share in a filing made December 1. Then on December 7, they announced plans to sell shares for a range of $56 – $60. The company then priced their IPO at $68 a share on Wednesday, December 9. Shares opened trading at around $150 and ended the day at $144.71.

Here’s some institutional investor background on how this IPO is being looked at, Sanford Bernstein ran a Procensus investor survey to compile major talking points. ~100 investors participated, representing >$10T in AUM. Consensus suggests Airbnb delivers a +16% revenue CAGR in the next decade with steady state margins at ~25%. Bulls will argue the IPO price range (now indicating near ~$60) is reasonable”

+16% Revenue CAGR seems somewhat reasonable to us, so the biggest assumption in question really is the ~25% margins in our view. With that being said, and trying to remain reasonable from an assumptions stand point, here are our main assumptions:

  • In 2020 Airbnb Bookings will be down ~34%, but Airbnb will have a bounce back year in 2021, with high Bookings growth in 2022-2025, and Bookings growth slowing in 2026-2030. Our Base case in Bookings growth is shown below.
Source: Our estimates
  • Revenues as a % of Bookings will continue to increase in the future as the new host model for professional hosts and Experiences business gain steam and a larger % of Airbnb Bookings. Revenue as a % of Bookings was 12.6% in 2019 and we estimate it will be around 14.6% in 2025 for example.
  • Operating costs will continue to decrease as a % of revenue as Airbnb continues to grow in scale. This continuing growth in scale culminates in a high single digit operating margin by 2025 and a 27.1% operating margin by 2030. This is lower than Booking’s (BKNG) operating margin of 35.5% in 2019, but higher than hotel operators such as Marriott’s (VAC) or 17.4% Hyatt (H), 9.1% respectively in 2019.
Source: Company S-1 and our estimates

Taking a look into future revenue growth scenarios with revenues increasing as a % of Bookings and Bookings growth, we get a range of potential 2025 revenues. We think anywhere from $11bn to $13.7bn in revenue is the likeliest scenario for Airbnb in 2025.

Source: Our estimates

Using a discounted cash flow model with a Weighted Average Cost of Capital of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, we get a Base Case price of $77.40.

What’s interesting in our valuation is that the vast majority of value in Airbnb is from the Net Present Value of the terminal value. Because Terminal Value is based on the company’s value in perpetuity beyond our 10-year cash flow forecast, assumptions have an incredibly large effect on the current valuation. Any sort of valuation can be justified based on any set of input growth assumptions. We try to stay reasonable while acknowledging the upside that Airbnb does really exhibit. We show a range of cases below:

Source: Our estimates

Upside and Downside Risks:

Upside risks include higher than anticipated Bookings leading to higher revenue estimates. It is certainly possible we (and the market) are underestimated top line growth potential as Airbnb continues to expand domestically and abroad.

Another upside risk is profitability. Airbnb in theory should be able to scale effectively given its business model and that the company itself does not own or hold the properties. They provide a platform and services, not the physical product, so as they become larger more efficiencies should be achieved and redundancies should be eliminated.

The main downside risks are two: valuation and regulatory issues. We love this company, but the valuation is simply incredibly rich and already at our Bull Case. A good company does not equal a good investment if the price is not good. However, we are not calling for shorting this because the market is red hot and can continue to be for months or even years. We are simply stating that odds are not in your favor here at this price level.

Another meaningful risk is regulatory scrutiny. Airbnb lists what regulations apply may to a host’s city and there has been pushback in certain cities and communities against short-term rentals through platforms like Airbnb. Here is a list of certain short-term rental laws across the US.

Investor Takeaway:

If you were in on the offering, congratulations. If you are a trader then do as you see fit as this name will be volatile and has a lot of interest. However, if you are an investor, this is clearly overvalued even though it’s a great company. Is it possible that Airbnb grows into this valuation years from now? Certainly, but everything must go absolutely right to justify this valuation. Is it likely to grow into today’s valuation? Not very.

We attach our model for free download here:

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Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/10 – Red Hot IPOs and Facebook Monetizes WhatsApp

Red Hot IPOs: DoorDash exploded 86% Wednesday to $189.51 in its market debut, only a day after pricing its IPO at $102, which was above its $90-$95 range. According to CNBC, “DoorDash is being valued at 17 times revenue, assuming you take the last quarter and extend it over a year. By the same metric, Uber is valued at less than 8 times revenue, and GrubHub agreed to be acquired earlier this year for under 4 times sales. Lyft, which has a very limited food delivery business, trades for about 7.5 times revenue on that basis.”

To say this premium is absurd is frankly common sense. The food delivery business is not profitable and unlikely to ever become profitable and everyone is a loser for participating – The restaurants who lose money to fees, the delivery drivers who make almost no money, and the consumer who is paying $20 for an $8 salad.

A bit more quietly, following DoorDash an AI company called C3.ai surged 120.2% in its IPO. The IPO market is incredibly frothy and none of these valuations are likely to hold far into the future and everyone knows it. That being said, investor exuberance can keep them this high for months, if not years. In other news, Airbnb IPOs today and we will release our valuation of the company after its first trading day.

Facebook WhatsApp Strategy: WhatsApp isn’t popular in the US, but it is popular everywhere else. We shared this chart last week and are re-sharing it here to show the extent of WhatsApp’s global reach.

Source: Statista

However, WhatsApp has yet to be really monetized the way other Facebook owned platforms have been through ads. Mark Zuckerberg now sees potential to monetize this massive WhatsApp user base by bringing on retailers to sell goods and services on the app or to even use the app to handle customer service requests per Bloomberg.

Bloomberg goes on, “For Facebook, a company that makes 99% of its revenue from advertising, WhatsApp presents a chance to diversify its business and protect itself from erosion in enthusiasm for its core social networking apps. Eventually, Facebook believes, it can control the entire exchange between a brand and its customer, starting with an ad on Facebook or Instagram and leading to an interaction or product sale on WhatsApp or Messenger.”

We particularly liked this quote in the article, “They say you need three things to survive: food, shelter, and clothes,” she says. “But in India you need four things: food, shelter, clothes, and WhatsApp.”

We look forward to Facebook’s continued transformation and how it intends to find additional sources of revenue such as this venture.

Tweets and Charts we like:

Agreed. We’ve always liked the idea of an index offering minus certain names or industries.

Staying true to today’s theme

Debt Raising Records

Business Insurance not helping

Sneak peak of what will happen in the US when we get past Covid

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

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Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/9 – $T Stock finally moves and $550 headphones

HBO Max and Peacock: AT&T CEO, John Stankey, speaking at an investment conference highlighted that HBO Max added about 4 million new users in less than 3 months, putting subscriber count at 12.6 million. Against all odds, AT&T’s stock made a jump Tuesday on the news. CNBC also released a good piece last Friday on AT&T and its strategy with HBO Max.

Source: Koyfin

Comcast also announced that it has 26 million subscribers, up from 22 million in October. However, Peacock is free and has ads. Comcast meanwhile was down 1% on Tuesday.

Per Bloomberg some industry context, “The two media conglomerates are playing catch-up in a streaming industry with more entrenched players, including Netflix, Disney and Amazon.com Inc. Netflix has 65 million subscribers in the U.S. alone, and many more overseas. And Disney has a trio of services — Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ — that it sells as a bundle.”

Apple Launches Headphones: Apple launched its first over-ear headphones, deciding to enter a competitive market dominated by Bose and Sony and to continue the company’s push into accessories. The new headphones go for a meager $550.

Per CNET, “The popularity of AirPods have helped turn them into one of the company’s biggest recent hits. AirPods represented 35% of all wireless earbud sales in the spring of this year, according to surveys by Counterpoint Research. Apple’s AirPods are also the most popular in the market, followed by earbuds from Xiaomi, Samsung and Jabra.

By charging $549 for its new AirPods Max headphones, Apple is betting that customers will be drawn in by the memory foam ear cups and fold-flat design to choose them over other popular devices including Bose’s noise-cancelling headphones, which start at $380 and fell to $300 on Black Friday.”

The good news is that these headphones are only half the price of a Peloton bike so they’re a steal!

Charts and Tweets we like:

Investment grade bonds now yielding less than inflation expectations. Thanks Jay Powell!

Americans are paying off their credit card debt

Dividend economies and markets

Equity melt-up

Still a lot of cash on the sidelines – chart courtesy of @jsblokland

Americans’ willingness to receive Covid vaccine is increasing

Recovery completed among different industries

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/8 – Target Date Funds and Uber Self-Driving

Target Date Funds: A staple of a majority of millennial 401(k)’s – Target Date Funds, have many performance drawbacks and don’t perform as well as holding the same as directly holding the basket of ETFs that compose the target date funds according to a new research paper.

The paper comes to the conclusion primarily because of two factors: cash drag and additional hidden fees due to the fund of funds structure of Target Date Funds. Additional hidden fees is obvious and can hinder performance and the paper makes the distinction between fees when it says, “Typically, underlying holdings’ fees make up 60-80% of total fees, with the remainder attributable to fund-of-funds fees” The paper estimates this ‘fee gap’ to contribute from 0.56% to 0.82% in under-performance per year when compared to holding the same ETFs in the Target Date Fund and being invested 100% of the time.

Fidelity Freedom 2030 Replicating Fund Performance – Vanguard ETF Replication. The figure shows the performance of one dollar invested in one of two portfolios: the Fidelity Freedom 2030 TDF (Target Date Fund) or the Fidelity Freedom 2030 RF formed from Vanguard ETFs. The sample performance covers April 2006 through December 2017. The RF (replicating fund) outperforms the TDF by 13.9% over the sample period and the correlation between the two funds’ performances is 0.993

Cash drag refers to the effect holding cash has on performance. Target Date Funds are not always 100% invested and this affects performance, with the paper estimating that cash drag exhibits a 0.37% a year in under-performance. These fees and under-performance add up, especially in the early years and the gap in performance can be very large once we look at the end result.

Apple Chips: Apple is planning to release a new series of Mac processors as early as 2021 that are aimed at outperforming Intel’s fastest chips. Intel stock slid on the news because all Intel knows how to do is lose stock value and fall further behind its competitors.

Source: Koyfin

According to Bloomberg, “Chip engineers at the Cupertino, California-based technology giant are working on several successors to the M1 custom chip, Apple’s first Mac main processor that debuted in November. If they live up to expectations, they will significantly outpace the performance of the latest machines running Intel chips.”

The words “Long” and “Intel” should only be said together if you put an “out of” in between the two.

Uber Gives Up Self-Driving Alone: According to The Verge, “Uber is selling its autonomous vehicle business to Aurora Innovations, a San Francisco-based startup founded by the former head engineer of Google’s self-driving car project, the two companies announced Monday.”

The deal marks the end of Uber’s goal to create a fleet of robot taxis on its own strictly in-house as it now looks to partnerships to make the vision closer to a reality. As part of the deal, Aurora’s self-driving cars will eventually operate on Uber’s platform. Aurora is acquiring 100% of Advanced Technology Group (ATG) in an all-stock transaction and Uber will invest $400 million in Aurora. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will also join the company’s board of directors.

Uber self-driving car after a crash

Sequoia Black Swan: At the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, Sequoia advised its companies to reign in spending and to prepare for a new economic reality.

Yet despite its accurate warning and defensive posturing, Sequoia has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic. Investors in at least two mature yet active Sequoia funds will see 11-fold returns on paper, after fees, according to performance data reviewed by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg continues, “When Sequoia investors made their prediction in early March, they didn’t fully account for the ways a world of isolation would benefit technology companies or the impact of government stimulus programs, said Roelof Botha, a partner at the firm.”

Pays to be right and lucky sometimes.

Student Loan forgiveness analysis: Goldman Sachs did a macro level analysis on different student loan forgiveness proposals and the results are worth discussing as we millennials are well-versed in student loan debt.

There are a variety of proposals on the topic, but a divided government seems most likely with the Georgia Senate runoffs in January, meaning any forgiveness will be limited by Senate Republicans. In general, higher income and more highly educated individuals hold a larger percentage of large student loan sizes. For this reason, only a targeted approach would be a more “progressive” policy and vast student loan forgiveness is a “regressive” policy, strictly speaking.

The GS analysis is interesting for two reasons – personal tax implications and economic implications. GS says, “Debt forgiveness is usually treated as taxable income to the borrower .. For example, forgiving $50k in student debt for a borrower with $100k in income (and a marginal tax rate of around 25%) would leave them with a tax bill of around $12.5k in a single year.” These are are the types of details aren’t discussed in the student loan debate. Although we would say it would be taken into account by the technocrats crafting policy.

Also, they indicate that the effects of student loan policy on real GDP is negligible. “Forgiving student loans up to $10k would boost the level of GDP by less than 0.1% starting in 2021, with the effect declining over our forecast horizon. Over 10 years, this policy would cumulatively add $0.43 in real GDP for each $1 of forgiven debt … Forgiving student loans up to $50k would generate a large tax bill in the year of loan cancellation that more than offsets the gain from payment reduction, resulting in a slight drag on real GDP in 2021. In the following years, real GDP levels would be raised by slightly less than 0.2%.

Charts and Tweets we like:

US-China trade imbalance

Top performing IPOs

Restaurant pain

Tesla not competitive in Europe?

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

Categories
Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/7 – Markets Up on a bad Jobs Report

Jobs report bad – markets up?: The November jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 245,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate falling to 6.7% from 6.9%. Economists had expected a 432,000 jobs gain and an unemployment rate of 6.8%.

This shows that the economic recovery is slowing and hasn’t met expectations, yet the markets were up with the S&P, DJIA, and Nasdaq closing .88%, .83%, .70% up respectively. Why has this happened, where’s the disconnect between the markets and the economy?

The markets don’t discount the bad data, but the bad data isn’t relevant in the current context. We are being promised a stimulus bill and vaccines are being rolled out which will boost the recovery. As long as these two developments are underpinning the background, backward looking data is not as important nor relevant.

Holiday Spending: According to Morgan Stanley, a majority of Americans intend to spend roughly the same or more than they spent last year for this upcoming holiday season. The highest earners are likelier to spend more when compared to their lower earning counterparts, with 73% of those making $100k+ expecting to spend more or the same this year. This is another metric that shows it’s the lowest earners are suffering the most during the pandemic.

Consumer spending across categories: Goldman Sachs estimates that consumer activity is back to 97.6% of per-virus levels.

Looking at it more in detail- clubs, sports, and entertainment, hotels, and clothing are down the most when compared to their February levels. In contrast, housing, communication, and financials are near 100% of their pre-virus levels.

Tweets and Charts we like:

The negative link between US equities, especially stocks, and the 10-year rate on Treasuries. This intuitively makes sense between tech companies promise growth and those future cash flows are discounted back at a higher/lower rate according to the rates movements.

Fun chart indeed!

The trade-off in investing

True diversification courtesy of ValueStockGeek:

Bill Ackman on his greatest investing mistake:

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

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Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/4 – Theater Industry Shakedown

Theater Industry Shakedown: On Thursday, AT&T’s WarnerMedia announced its intent to release its entire slate of 2021 movies directly on HBO Max at the same time they hit theaters. AT&T, as is typical for the stock, barely moved on the news.

The real news is the impact on movie theater chains. $CNK was down 21.95% and $AMC was down 15.97% once the headline hit. Adam Aron, CEO and president of AMC Entertainment said in a statement, ““Clearly, Warner Media intends to sacrifice a considerable portion of the profitability of its movie studio division, and that of its production partners and filmmakers, to subsidize its HBO Max startup.”

Source: Koyfin

A Cinemark company rep said “At this time, Warner Bros. has not provided any details for the hybrid distribution model of their 2021 films.” Hard to believe this was such a shock to movie theater operators, but they insist it was. If theater companies are so unprepared for announcements like these, it leads to the question of what their future will look like.

Pfizer vaccine: According to the WSJ, “Pfizer Inc. expects to ship half of the Covid-19 vaccines it originally planned for this year because of supply-chain problems, but still expects to roll out more than a billion doses in 2021.”

A company spokeswoman said, “Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected.” Fine, fair enough, this vaccine has been created, approved, and now being mass produced on a light-speed timeline. However, this doesn’t inspire confidence that the vaccine distribution will be completely smooth.

A truck leaves the Pfizer vactory in Belgium.

Famous Short Sellers get it wrong too: Jim Chanos, short selling legend, has been short Tesla’s stock for five very long years. “It’s been painful, clearly,” Chanos said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview.

He continues to believe that Tesla’s valuation and business model are absurd, and he’s not wrong. But it’s not enough to be right, your calls have to make money too.

Source: Koyfin.com

Is Tesla an EV company, an autonomous-vehicle company, or a clean-energy play? “It’s whatever people want to believe Elon Musk is touting,” said Chanos, pointing out that Tesla’s five straight quarters of profit are due to sales of regulatory credits rather than cars.

House Approves restrictions on Chinese companies: Per Bloomberg, “The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation that could ultimately lead to Chinese companies — including behemoths like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc. — getting kicked off American exchanges if regulators aren’t allowed to review their financial audits.”

Few things are as bipartisan in 2020 as anything anti-China. The bill gives a phase-in period with penalties that only kick in after 3 straight years of non compliance, but the intent signals increased hawkishness.

Tweets and Charts we like:

One possible timeline courtesy of the New York Times:

Party like its 1999 in 2020?

US Household debt service as a % Disposable Income at the lowest level in decades – thanks Jay Powell!

Our senators clearly had us at the forefront of their minds

Raise your hand if you expected healthcare to be best performing sector since 1990?

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

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Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/3 – Stimulus still on? and Facebook antitrust

Facebook antitrust: A group of US states is investigating Facebook for possible antitrust violations and plans to file a lawsuit next week. More than 40 states are planning to sign on to the lawsuit. It’s not known what the lawsuit will include in the complaint but one common allegation made against Facebook is that it has strategically tried to buy smaller potential rivals, such as Instagram and WhatsApp. (Btw, US millennial readers, the entire world uses WhatsApp except for the US.)

Source: Statista

We take no view on the likelihood of real tangible penalties or actions, but seemingly long shot risks like these can materialize into an unmistakable risk in hindsight overnight.

Humanoid lizard robot Mark Zuckerberg preparing himself for human communication protocols. It was important to us that we include this picture.

Stimulus Still in Play: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer threw their support behind the $908bn bipartisan stimulus proposal on Wednesday. This $908bn number will be the starting point of a new round of discussions with a stimulus deal being in a six month standoff.

“In the spirit of compromise we believe the bipartisan framework introduced by senators yesterday should be used as the basis for immediate bipartisan, bicameral negotiations,” Schumer and Pelosi said in a statement, referring to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Also, there is progress on the Republican side toward a deal:

UPS not doing their S part: Per Bloomberg, “United Parcel Service Inc. is temporarily restricting some packages it takes from big retailers such as Nike Inc., Gap Inc. and L.L. Bean Inc. as online orders spur record deliveries ahead of the holidays.”

This holiday season will be a record breaker with more online shopping than ever due to the pandemic, but can you guys chill so I can get gifts for my nephews shipped in time. Thanks.

Can’t win ’em all: Per Bloomberg, “The raging global pandemic helped hedge fund manager Said Haidar make more than 25% during the market turmoil in March. Vaccines that could end the crisis have now erased those gains … His Haidar Jupiter macro hedge fund slumped 23.5% in November, its biggest monthly decline since starting more than two decades ago.”

There’s two parts to every trade and the exit is just as important as the entry.

Tweets and charts we like:

Adapting to sentiment indicators

High option volume still hitting records

Zerohedge is a permabear but this tweet is spot on from all research pieces I’ve seen so far

Some lessons from a value investor about what doesn’t work

Like a junkie, Salesforce just can’t get enough of those deals

Image

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Valuation

Roblox Valuation – A First Look

  • Roblox is a global platform where millions of people gather together to imagine, create, and share experiences with each other in immersive, user-generated 3D worlds
  • Roblox plans to IPO before Christmas, so we take a look at the rumored valuation of $8bn
  • Covid-19 has generated a huge boost to traffic with Daily Active Users ((DAUs)) growing 82%, hours engaged growing 122%, revenue growing 68%, bookings growing 171%, and a large $292.6 mm in free cash flow in the nine months ended Sept 30, 2020
  • The valuation story depends on Roblox’s ability to continue growing once the Covid pandemic is in the rear-view mirror

When Roblox was first brought to my attention, I thought they were some sort of gimmick legos. Full disclosure, I have never played this game, but I did play Runescape many, many years ago. Chopped the hell out of some Yew trees. This makes me not the least qualified to gauge Roblox as a video game, but we are gauging it’s potential as a stock instead.

Roblox Business and Technology: Roblox was founded in 2003 and has hit many milestones before the planned IPO launch. The most important recent developments being the Joint Venture with Tencent to establish Roblox China and re-launching Roblox Premium to develop a subscriber base with steadier cash flows.

Source: Company S-1

The Roblox business model is based on the underlying technology and infrastructure that support the 31.1 million average DAUs. Roblox defines a DAU as “a user who has logged in and visited Roblox through our website or application on a unique registered account on a given calendar day. If a registered, logged in user visits Roblox more than once within a 24-hour period that spans two calendar days, that user is counted as a DAU only for the first calendar day” (source: company S-1).

This business is based on three elements:

  • Roblox Client: The underlying app that allows users to explore 3D worlds
  • Roblox Studio: The toolset that enables developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences and content
  • Roblox Cloud: The services and infrastructure that power the platform
Roblox: 'I thought he was playing an innocent game' - BBC News
I think this is what Roblox players do but I can’t be sure

The Roblox platform and the key technology characteristics are as follows:

  • Identity: The Roblox avatar system allows users to create and personalize their unique 3D identities. There are a wide variety of character styles.
  • Friends: The Roblox Client allows users to connect through various means, including detecting nearby players or meeting in the Roblox world. The social graph created by these connections is stored in the Roblox Cloud. The Roblox Platform supports text-based chat among users sharing the same 3D experience and between users connected through the social graph.
  • Immersion: The Roblox platform allows developers to build deeply immersive 3D environments where users can share experiences.
  • Low friction: Users have the ability to interact with experiences almost instantly, on most popular client devices, and from anywhere in the world over existing broadband and cellular networks. When a user joins an online experience, the Roblox Cloud assigns that user to a particular game instance based on the user’s social graph, geographic location, spoken language, and age group. 
  • Variety of content: Roblox provides developers with reference material, tutorials, community forums, and analytics to build their creations. Developers and creators build nearly all of the content for the Roblox Platform. Once content is built, it can be replicated and shared across multiple experiences giving developers the ability to scale their efforts and make rapid updates. There were over 18 million experiences on Roblox as of Sept 30, 2020.
  • Global: The Roblox Platform serves a global audience. In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, developers from over 170 countries and users spanning over 180 countries accessed the platform.
  • Economy: Roblox has a vibrant economy built on a currency called Robux, which can be purchased. Developers and creators earn Robux by selling access to virtual content or by driving engagement of Premium subscribers through an engagement-based payout system. When Premium subscribers spend time in a developer’s experience, that developer earns a prorated share of the user’s monthly subscription fee.
Robux, the currency of the online Roblox world, buying options

Developer Incentives: With nearly the entire Roblox online universe being built by the ingenuity of developers and creators, Roblox has developed a system to incentivize natural development expansion.

Roblox currently offers developers and creators four ways to earn Robux:

  • The sale of access to their experiences and enhancements to these experiences
  • Engagement-based payouts – rewarding developers for the amount for time that Premium subscribers spend in their experiences
  • The sale of content and tools between developers
  • Sale of items to users through the Avatar marketplace

As users purchase and spend their Robux on Roblox, developers receive 70% of the Robux spent within their experiences and 70% of the items that appear in the Studio marketplace. Creators receive 30% of the Robux spent for their items on the Avatar marketplace.

Example of a store from Mining Simulator by Runaway Rumble within Roblox

These earned Robux are deposited into virtual accounts where developers can convert Robux into U.S. dollars at an exchange rate of 1 Robux to $0.0035. In the nine months ended Sept 30, 2020, developers and creators earned $209.2 mm, up from $72.2 mm in the nine months ended Sept 30, 2019. Clearly, the Roblox developers and creators are also benefiting from the massive spike in users on Roblox.

Current Roblox Business Profile: When users sign up for Roblox, they can create an avatar and explore the vast majority of experiences for free, although the business model for any experience is ultimately up to the developer. Users can purchase Robux either as one-time purchases or via Roblox Premium, a subscription service billed monthly.

For one-time purchases, users can purchase the virtual currency through various channels including the Apple App Store, Google Play Store, credit cards, prepaid cards, Microsoft app store, PayPal, and others. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, 34% and 18% of Roblox revenue was generated on Apple App Store and Google Play Store, respectively. For operations through both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, Roblox must pay the customary 30% to Apple or Google.

Roblox has managed to rapidly expand its DAU base.

Source: Company and our estimates

Roblox has grown its DAU count by 94.9% and 96.9% in Q2 and Q3 of this year, respectively. DAUs are up in every geographic region with the Rest of the World segment growth being particularly impressive. However, Roblox acknowledges that this upsurge in growth during the pandemic may not be sustainable when they say, “We do not expect these activity levels to be sustained, and in future periods we expect growth rates for our revenue to decline, and we may not experience any growth in bookings or our user base during periods where we are comparing against COVID-19 impacted periods” (source: company S-1).

The growth profile and future look of Roblox as an attractive investment hinges on their ability to keep the surge in DAU growth they’ve experienced as a result of the pandemic and then continue to grow their DAUs (albeit at a slower pace compared to 2020).

The DAU metrics show that 55.6% of DAUs in the nine months ended Sept 30, 2020 are under the age of 13.

Source: company S-1

DAUs drive spending, and Roblox has seen the average bookings per DAU increase as well. Bookings are defined as “equal to the amount of virtual currency purchased by users in a given period of time” (source: company S-1). Therefore, we can expect bookings to be the most widely watched metric every quarterly earnings release, not revenue. DAUs and average bookings per DAU growth are the primary drivers in our valuation model.

Roblox Cost Profile: The major Roblox operating costs consist of

  • Cost of revenue – 3rd party payment processing such as Apple and Google app stores – 12.5% of Bookings YTD
  • Developer exchange fees – amount earned by developers and creators on the Roblox platform – 16.9% of Bookings YTD
  • Infrastructure – Data centers and technical support – 19.8% of Bookings YTD
  • R&D, G&A, and Sales and marketing – 19.8% of Bookings YTD
Source: Company and our estimates

As you can see from the chart above, the Loss from Operations has widened significantly the past 4 quarters. However, this is slightly misleading because the company is cash flow positive and the company has been generating more cash flow, not less.

Source: Company S-1

The reason for this is the method the company uses to recognize revenue vs bookings. On revenue recognition, “We generally recognize revenue from users ratably over the average lifetime of a paying user, which for the years ending December 31, 2018 and 2019 was 23 months. Therefore, much of the revenue we report in each quarter is the result of purchases of Robux during previous periods” (source: company S-1). And bookings – “Substantially all of our bookings are generated from sales of our virtual currency which we record as deferred revenue and then recognize that revenue over the estimated average lifetime of a paying user” (source: company S-1).

Source: Company S-1

So these accounting losses don’t necessarily matter because the company is free cash flow positive. As we can see in the table of bookings and revenue, revenue as a % of bookings declined from 70% in 2019 to 38.4% and 48.8% in Q2 and Q3 2020 respectively.

Roblox Growth strategy: Roblox is focused on four core strategies in order to achieve growth:

  • Platform extension: Roblox is continually investing in the platform including in avatars, experiences, technology, and other social features. These efforts can further drive bookings per DAU.
  • Age demographic expansion: Roblox and developers are working on building higher quality experiences and content that appeal to an older age demographic. These efforts can drive DAU growth as well as bookings per DAU as older people don’t have to beg mom and dad for their credit card.
  • International growth: The JV with Tencent in China is a testament to Roblox’s ability to grow internationally into new markets.
  • Further monetization: Roblox is working with their developer community actively to help improve monetization. Efforts such as Roblox premium being introduced in August 2019 as well as working with leading brands to build unique marketing opportunities on the Roblox platform can further drive monetization.

Massively Multiplayer Online Gaming Market: The MMO market has increased rapidly and has hit over 16 million total players. (source) We take a look at the market’s growth to get a sense of the growth that Roblox may be able to achieve in the near future and beyond. The total number of players dipped in 2019, but the trend is clear with around a 28.5% CAGR in total MMO players over the past 3 years.

Source: https://mmo-population.com/charts/players

We also take a look at the MMO arguably most similar to Roblox, Minecraft. Minecraft is owned by Microsoft and they have released intermittent data points on the number of active players on the platform. The number of active players on Minecraft has increased from 40 million in June 2016 to 126 million as of May 2020. We have only 5 total data points in this time-frame, but this indicates a 33% CAGR over the period and it has accelerated from October 2018 to May 2020. Can Roblox experience a similar level of growth in active players?

Source: Statista

Roblox Forecast: The basis of our valuation is Bookings per user growth, DAU by region growth, and expenses as a % of Bookings.

Bookings per User have grown 68.6% and 52.5% in Q2 and Q3 y/y, respectively. We think they continue to grow at a high pace in Q4 and Q1 of next year. However, growth will then decelerate as the populations are vaccinated and people start to live their lives as normal once again, thus removing a tailwind for online gaming.

Source: Company S-1

We have Bookings per user growing 20.6% in 2021, 10% in 2022, 7.5% in 2023, and 5% in subsequent years. For example, this deceleration in each DAU spend gives us a quarterly spend on over $20 a quarter in 2024.

DAUs have grown rapidly during the pandemic, and likewise we expect this growth to decelerate as the pandemic draws to a close. We forecast that Roblox will consolidate its Covid user-base gains, and grow an additional 12.5% in DAUs in 2021, 7.5% in 2022, and 5% every subsequent year. This means that Roblox will pass 50 million DAUs in 2024 and will have close to 60 million in 2030.

We forecast that Roblox’s costs and expenses will increase, but as a result of scaling will decrease as a % of Bookings in the future. We anticipate that Roblox will be able to consolidate its cost profile so far experienced in 2020 and will have a cost profile ~60% of Bookings in the future, with the largest contributors to cost being cost of revenue, developer exchange fees, and infrastructure where it is more difficult to create efficiencies through scale.

Source: our estimates

For some scenario analyses of what the company bookings will be in 2025, we look at different ranges of DAU growth and Bookings per user growth. Roblox currently has averaged 31.1mm DAUs in 2020, and we run scenarios from 22mn to 92mm DAUs in 2025. Likewise, we grow average bookings anywhere from 0% to 17.5% a year. We estimate the likeliest bookings range to be $2.9bn to $5.4bn in 2025, compared to the estimated $1.8bn in bookings for full-year 2020.

Our estimates

Valuation: We value Roblox through a Discounted cash flow model with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 4%. With these assumptions, we get an equity value per share of around $26.50. With the rumors of Roblox seeking a valuation of ~$8bn (source), we get 114% upside.

Source: our estimates

Just for fun, we run a scenario where we give Roblox decrease DAUs -5% and give 0% growth in bookings per DAU, while keeping the same cost profile, for the final three quarters of 2021 (when the pandemic winds down). We then grow at an anemic rate in DAUs in the future, 5% in 2022 and 2.5% a year onward, we get a price target of ~$18.30 and an equity value close to $12bn.

Risks to our View:

Younger audience: With 55.6% of DAUs under the age of 13, how likely is it that they stay on the Roblox platform, we don’t have a definitive answer. Kids so young move to the next hottest game very easily and quickly and therefore it is crucial that Roblox continue to capture and keep their attention in order to grow their DAU count.

MMO gaming market competition: An extension of the first risk, the MMO gaming market is incredibly competitive and Roblox will need to continue to innovate and develop its platform to stay ahead of the competition. We aren’t aware of any new releases that directly challenge Roblox’s position as one of the most widely played games in the world, but new video games and revamps of old games happen all the time. We look forward to seeing how Roblox continues to differentiate itself in the gaming market from competitors and whether these efforts will be successful.

Inability to consolidate Covid user-base gains: Once the pandemic ends will the majority of DAUs gained no longer play Roblox or play/spend less? Our model assumes that the company is able to keep the majority of its DAUs and continue to grow, but this is truly a risk without a real precedent.

We share our valuation model here:

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Daily Update

Daily Brief 12/2 – Lackluster Cyber Monday

Cyber Monday: Per Barrons, “According to Adobe, Cyber Monday sales reached $10.84 billion, rising more than 15% year over year. That is at the low end of the 15% to 35% range the firm projected, but still makes it the largest online shopping day in U.S. history. Adobe now expects online sales to reach $184 billion for the holiday season as whole, down from a prior estimate of $189 billion.”

Is this a case of Cyber Monday not really being a cultural force anymore or is shopping traffic not hitting the expectations purely? Time will tell, but Amazon did capture nearly 20% of Black Friday-Cyber Monday long weekend spend according to Numerator data.

Also according to Sensormatic Solutions, 2020 Black Friday weekend store traffic was down 49% compared to 2019.

US Bankruptcy tracker: There was just one company with more than $50 mm in liabilities filing Chapter 11 in the week ended Nov 28. This makes November the lightest month of the year with only 11 filings. However there have been 228 bankruptcy filings year-to-date by companies with more than $50mm in liabilities, the highest since 2009 when it was 275.

Kelly Conlan, managing director at Duff & Phelps LLC said, “The next wave of filings will come from the companies which continue to be impacted by the pandemic, even after a vaccine is distributed.” Providers of travel products and services are most at risk as work-from-home measures become entrenched and their clients transition to video communication, according to Conlan. She goes on that retail, minus Amazon and Walmart, will also struggle after another disappointing shopping season.

Zoom zooms down: Zoom feel 15.06% after reporting blockbuster earnings yesterday. The market is beginning to question whether the momentum in results like these can be sustained once we go back to ~normal. Zoom has surged over 500% this year.

This is indicative of the theme we highlighted yesterday, did some companies have a brief moment in the sun because of Covid or was their growth and secular story genuinely accelerated. The market is beginning to distinguish between the two.

Source: Koyfin.com

Tweets and charts we like:

This is more about Greeks and dark pool trading, but take a dive if you’re interested!

Moderna’s vaccine is currently the most expensive

Bill Ackman on what makes a great investment

Online ad revenue index skyrocketing

Millions set to lose jobless aid as federal programs expire.

That’s your millennialmkts daily debrief. Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.