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Daily Brief 12/15 – Chinese Growth and New York Shutdown

Chines Recovery: China’s recovery from Covid-19 continues and fathered pace in November, with exports surging at the fastest pace since February 2018.

“Exports surged by 21.1 percent year on year to $268 billion, beating forecasts. A Reuters poll earlier predicted a 12-percent growth in exports in November, while China International Capital Corp. Ltd. forecast a 10.8-percent increase. 

Imports rose by 4.5 percent to $192.6 billion, slower than October’s 4.7-percent growth, leading to a trade surplus of $75.4 billion.”

What’s most interesting is that Chinese growth is being buttressed by global demand, not domestic consumption. This signifies that 1. The world is more dependent on China for goods than ever and 2. That consumer incomes in the developed world are supported and being spent during the pandemic. We do, however, suspect that a good portion of these exports is PPE. Your mask was likely made in China.

New York Shutdown: Governor Andrew Cuomo said that New York is headed toward a second full shut-down if Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continue at their current trajectory. “If we do not change the trajectory, we could very well be headed to shut down” all non-essential businesses, Cuomo said Monday at a virus briefing.

Source: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york

He did say a potential shutdown would be shorter than the one New York experienced in the spring. “Hopefully we’re talking about restrictions only for a matter of weeks, but wehave to be preparing ourselves mentally and practically for that possibility.”

Charlie Munger says Virus will be insignificant in a year: Munger, Warren Buffet’s long-time partner business said, “It’s amazing, I watched the polio get totally killed by the vaccinations .. They’ll spread these vaccines over the world so fast, it’ll make your head spin.” We agree Charlie.

He went on about future equity-market returns and said he expects them to be lower the next 10 years when compared to the previous 10. We agree again.

Tweets and charts we like:

This is true.

#value

Positive news on the stimulus front

IPO fever

$100 trillion is just a number anyway

This is a great thread and a great quote

That’s your millennialmkts update! Thanks for reading, if you like this content please consider following this blog and following us on twitter @millennial_mkts

Posts are not investment advice or endorsements.

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